The Fed held rates steady. Here’s what that means for Tucson buyers

The short version
  • The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, 2026, in a 10-2 vote, after a quarter-point increase in September.
  • Mortgage rates follow longer-term Treasury yields more than the Fed's rate. Freddie Mac's 30-year average was 7.24% the week of October 29, down from 7.32% the week before.
  • Two local programs help with the down payment: City of Tucson and Pima County HOME assistance (up to $50,000 for eligible buyers) and Pima Tucson Homebuyer's Solution, which has no first-time buyer requirement.

The Federal Reserve left its key interest rate alone on October 28. The federal funds rate stays at 3.75% to 4%, where a quarter-point increase put it in September. The vote was 10 to 2, and the two members who disagreed wanted another increase. The Fed’s statement said inflation “remains elevated” and that more information will help it decide what comes next.

What it means for your mortgage rate

The Fed doesn’t set the rate on your home loan. Mortgage rates are “more strongly linked to longer-term rates such as the 10- or 20-year Treasury yield,” as Atlanta Fed economist Kris Gerardi put it last year. That’s why mortgage rates can move even when the Fed stands still.

The latest reading: Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate was 7.24% the week of October 29, down from 7.32% the week before. Freddie Mac posts a new number every Thursday, and I’ll update this post when it does.

Ways to make the numbers work right now

  • Ask the seller to help with your rate. With 5.0 months of supply across the MLS in September, the market isn’t rushing buyers. A seller-paid rate buydown or closing cost credit can lower your payment more than a small price cut. Here’s what today’s rates do to a Tucson payment.
  • Start with homes that have already come down. About 1 in 5 Tucson listings had a price cut in September. See the price-reduced homes.

Down payment help most buyers never hear about

In a 2025 national survey for NeighborWorks America, about 4 in 10 adults weren’t aware of down payment assistance programs, and nearly 60% overestimated what it takes to buy a home. Two local programs are worth knowing:

  • City of Tucson and Pima County HOME down payment assistance. Up to $50,000 or 20% of the price, whichever is less, for households at or below 80% of area median income ($79,850 for a family of four). The purchase price limit is $304,000 for an existing home and $345,000 for new construction. It’s a deferred loan with no monthly payments, repaid when you sell, and you apply through a partner housing counseling agency. Program details.
  • Pima Tucson Homebuyer’s Solution. Down payment help through participating lenders, as a 0% interest, forgivable second mortgage. There’s no first-time buyer requirement, so repeat buyers can use it too, and there’s no purchase price limit. Income limits, a 640 minimum credit score and a homebuyer education class apply. Program highlights.

Program terms change, so confirm the current details with the program or an approved lender before you count on them.

What I’d do this week

  • Get pre-approved, and ask about both programs by name. Text me and I’ll introduce you to Alex Alvarez, the local lender I trust, and he can walk you through what you qualify for. Here’s how pre-approval works.
  • Check the price limit before you tour. The HOME program’s cap decides which homes it can be used on, so it’s worth knowing before you fall for one.

If you’d like me to check which of these fit your situation, text me. I’ll tell you straight if neither does.

Sources

  1. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Federal Reserve Board (Oct. 28, 2026)
  2. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Federal Reserve Board (Sept. 16, 2026)
  3. Not Joined at the Hip: The Relationship between the Fed Funds Rate and Mortgage Rates, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (Nov. 10, 2025)
  4. Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Freddie Mac (Oct. 22, 2026)
  5. MLSSAZ Monthly Market Report, September 2026, MLS of Southern Arizona (Oct. 5, 2026)
  6. Tucson Residential Asking Prices Fall Faster Than Nation as Housing Inventory Edges Higher (Realtor.com data), Real Estate Daily News (Oct. 5, 2026)
  7. Dream Deferred? GenZ, Millennials and the Down Payment Divide (survey by Morning Consult), NeighborWorks America (May 2025)
  8. Down Payment Assistance Program, City of Tucson
  9. Pima Tucson Homebuyer's Solution: Program Highlights, eHousingPlus

I summarize these sources in my own words. If something here looks off, text me and I’ll check it.

David Miranda Garcia
David Miranda GarciaREALTOR® with Realty Executives Arizona Territory
AZ license SA722677000 · 6444 E Tanque Verde Rd, Tucson, AZ 85715
Text me a question

Equal Housing Opportunity. This update is general information, not legal, tax or lending advice.

More Tucson housing news